[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 060216
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  82.7 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM EDT WED SEP  8 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

30.0N  85.0W      44  X  X  X 44   TAMPA FL          99  X  X  X 99
31.6N  85.6W      21  6  1  X 28   CEDAR KEY FL      99  X  X  X 99
33.0N  85.7W       2 17  2  2 23   ST MARKS FL       48  X  X  X 48
COCOA BEACH FL     2  X  X  X  2   APALACHICOLA FL   45  X  X  X 45
DAYTONA BEACH FL  28  X  X  1 29   PANAMA CITY FL    37  X  X  X 37
JACKSONVILLE FL   15  1  X  X 16   PENSACOLA FL      15  6  X  1 22
SAVANNAH GA        2  5  2  2 11   MOBILE AL          3 11  1  1 16
CHARLESTON SC      X  2  2  4  8   GULFPORT MS        1  7  2  1 11
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  2  4  6   BURAS LA           X  4  1  X  5
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  1  4  5   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  3  1  1  5
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  X  3  3   GULF 29N 85W      43  X  X  X 43
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  X  X  2  2   GULF 29N 87W      15  1  X  1 17
NORFOLK VA         X  X  X  3  3   GULF 28N 89W       X  1  X  1  2
VENICE FL         99  X  X  X 99

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8PM MON TO  8AM TUE
C FROM  8AM TUE TO  8PM TUE
D FROM  8PM TUE TO  8PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


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