[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT31 KNHC 052356
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  48A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004

...FRANCES CONTINUES OVER FLORIDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO DESTIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING
ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND
FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET NORTHWARD
TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCES WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 28.1
NORTH...LONGITUDE  82.3 WEST.  THIS POSITION IS OVER WEST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA ABOUT 15 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF TAMPA.

FRANCES HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION
NEAR 8 MPH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF FRANCESIS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BUT FRANCES COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS
975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH FLORIDA EAST COAST BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE ON MONDAY.  ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE PATH OF FRANCES. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF UP TO 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH
OF THE STORM.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
TO NEAR 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES ALONG FRANCES WIDE PATH.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
FLORIDA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...28.1 N... 82.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


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