[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 051229
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN 05 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN  SECTIONS
OF S AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
-
HURRICANE FRANCES AT 8 AM EDT/1200 UTC...IS NEAR 27.5N 80.8W OR
ABOUT 40 MILES EAST OF SEBRING FLORIDA...MOVING WEST 7 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. THE
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED IS 963 MB. SEE LATEST
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31
KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. OUTFLOW IS STILL LIMITED ON THE
W SIDE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE E COAST OF FLORIDA WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 27N80W. BANDS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 24N-31N
BETWEEN 76W-84W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AT 05/0900 UTC.
IVAN IS CENTERED NEAR 9.7N 44.3W AT 05/0900 UTC MOVING W AT 18
KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. IVAN HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL EYE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA
FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 41W-46W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W/76W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE
AXIS CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY LOCATE DUE TO BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ADDITIONALLY...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA IS MASKING THE WAVE AXIS.

WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS NOW A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 19W/20W S OF 14N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N10W 12N10W 4N23W 12N38W 6N57W.
OTHER THAN HURRICANE IVAN... SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF SENEGAL WITHIN A 45/60 NM RADIUS
OF 13.5N18W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST W GUINEA WITHIN 60/75 NM RADIUS OF 10N15W AND
WITHIN 75/90 NM OF 5.5N FROM 27W-33W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE E TROPICAL ATLC FROM 1N-14N BETWEEN
9W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TWO SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 27N100W
AND A WEAKER ONE IN THE W GULF CENTERED NEAR 23N96W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N82W CONTINUING
TO PRODUCE WESTERLY SHEAR INTO HURRICANE FRANCES. THE MOISTURE
PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE FRANCES IS SPREADING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRY
SURFACE AIR IS LIMITING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE FRANCES.

W ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 12N FROM
67W-84W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR
16N63W WITH FLOW COVERING THE AREA S OF 21N FROM 59W-66W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM
OF LINE FROM 14N70W-17N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 18N TO OVER PUERTO RICO FROM 65W-68W AND
OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N FROM 58W-70W.

EASTER/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS A TROUGH...
RIDGE...TROUGH PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. WEAK UPPER
LOW IS NEAR 27N53W AND A MID/UPPER LOW IS NEAR 21N60W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM 19N50W NNE TO
33N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N45W-31N40W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS NEAR 180N45W EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. WELL
DEFINED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N27W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR 15N8W WITH THE
FLOW FROM 4N-28N E OF 20W. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER T.S. IVAN IS
FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 40W-48W.

$$
WALLACE


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