[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KTAE 051137
HLSTLH
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-051435-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE FRANCES LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
735 AM EDT SUN SEP 5 2004

...HURRICANE FRANCES SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND
SOUTH GEORGIA...

  BAKER                            BAY
  BEN HILL                         BERRIEN
  BROOKS                           CALHOUN
  CLAY                             COASTAL WALTON
  COFFEE                           COLQUITT
  COOK                             DALE
  DECATUR                          DIXIE
  DOUGHERTY                        EARLY
  FRANKLIN                         GADSDEN
  GENEVA                           GRADY
  GULF                             HENRY
  HOLMES                           HOUSTON
  INLAND WALTON                    IRWIN
  JACKSON                          JEFFERSON
  LAFAYETTE                        LANIER
  LEE                              LEON
  LIBERTY                          LOWNDES
  MADISON                          MILLER
  MITCHELL                         QUITMAN
  RANDOLPH                         SEMINOLE
  TAYLOR                           TERRELL
  THOMAS                           TIFT
  TURNER                           WAKULLA
  WASHINGTON                       WORTH

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST UP TO SAINT MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM SAINT MARKS TO PANAMA CITY. A WARNING MEANS
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
24 HOURS...AND A WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR LEON...MADISON...AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES IN FLORIDA AND
GRADY...THOMAS...BROOKS...AND LOWNDES COUNTIES IN GEORGIA. AN INLAND
TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
INLAND FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 AM EDT...HURRICANE FRANCES WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST...OR 125 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPA
FLORIDA. FRANCES IS MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 95 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963
MB...OR 28.44 INCHES. FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER
CROSSES OVER LAND TODAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE NEAREST RAIN BANDS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH FRANCES ARE LOCATED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOME OF THESE OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL
AFFECT THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. THE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
BECAUSE OF ITS SLOW MOTION AND LONG DISTANCE AWAY FROM NORTHWEST
FLORIDA...IT WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE WEATHER IN THIS
AREA TO DETERIORATE. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AND WARNING
AREAS WILL HAVE MUCH OF THE DAY TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN AFFECT FOR EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVER
THIS AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOODING IN SOME
AREAS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF TONIGHT AS
A TROPICAL STORM WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH. SINCE IT IS
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST HOW MUCH A HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN OVER
LAND...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS WIND FORECAST.
HOWEVER...IF FRANCES FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL NOT REACH APALACHEE BAY AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST. WINDS OF
39 MPH OR GREATER WILL THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS COULD REACH 70 MPH IN GUSTS IN SOME OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES WITH THESE
WINDS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM SURGE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF APALACHEE BAY WILL
REACH 4 TO 6 FEET...MAINLY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE COAST. THE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY.

LOCAL TIDES OF INTEREST FOR MONDAY...

MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER...
LOW TIDE 1240 AM...HIGH TIDE 629 AM...
LOW TIDE...219 PM...HIGH TIDE...855 PM

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
LOW TIDE 1218 AM...HIGH TIDE 606 AM...
LOW TIDE...238 PM...HIGH TIDE...936 PM

APALACHICOLA...
LOW TIDE 137 AM...HIGH TIDE 751 AM...
LOW TIDE...506 PM

...TORNADOES...
AS FRANCES DRAWS CLOSER THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA.
THIS THREAT WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AS FRANCES MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TORNADOES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE CAN DEVELOP
SUDDENLY WITH LITTLE WARNING...ARE OFTEN DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN...AND MOVE VERY QUICKLY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 930 AM EDT BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.

$$

MAJ


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