[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 050839
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  80.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM EDT WED SEP  8 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

28.8N  83.6W      46  X  X  X 46   VENICE FL         46  X  X  X 46
29.9N  84.8W      23  6  X  1 30   TAMPA FL          65  X  X  X 65
31.5N  85.9W       X 16  5  1 22   CEDAR KEY FL      51  X  X  X 51
W PALM BEACH FL   99  X  X  X 99   ST MARKS FL       27  4  X  X 31
FT PIERCE FL      99  X  X  X 99   APALACHICOLA FL   22  6  1  X 29
COCOA BEACH FL    99  X  X  X 99   PANAMA CITY FL     9 14  1  X 24
DAYTONA BEACH FL  49  X  X  X 49   PENSACOLA FL       X 13  4  1 18
JACKSONVILLE FL   25  X  X  1 26   MOBILE AL          X  5  8  2 15
SAVANNAH GA        3  7  3  2 15   GULFPORT MS        X  2  7  3 12
CHARLESTON SC      X  2  4  5 11   BURAS LA           X  1  4  2  7
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  2  5  7   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  4  3  7
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  1  4  5   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  1  2  3
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  X  3  3   GULF 29N 85W      27  2  X  X 29
MARCO ISLAND FL    1  X  X  1  2   GULF 29N 87W       2 11  1  1 15
FT MYERS FL       32  X  X  X 32   GULF 28N 89W       X  2  1  X  3

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM MON TO  2PM MON
C FROM  2PM MON TO  2AM TUE
D FROM  2AM TUE TO  2AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


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