[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT74 KNHC 050838
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN SEP 05 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE  9.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  44.3 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM AST WED SEP  8 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

11.3N  50.6W      49  1  X  X 50   TFFR 163N 615W     X  X  8 12 20
12.2N  54.1W       2 33  X  X 35   TAPA 171N 618W     X  X  6 12 18
13.1N  57.5W       X  8 18  1 27   TKPK 173N 627W     X  X  3 14 17
TNCC 122N 690W     X  X  X  2  2   TNCM 181N 631W     X  X  1 15 16
SVMG 110N 640W     X  X  X 11 11   TISX 177N 648W     X  X  X 15 15
TTPP 106N 614W     X  X  2 12 14   TIST 183N 650W     X  X  X 14 14
TTPT 112N 608W     X  X  5 11 16   TJPS 180N 666W     X  X  X 11 11
TGPY 120N 618W     X  X  3 14 17   MDSD 185N 697W     X  X  X  4  4
TBPB 131N 595W     X  X 18  5 23   TJSJ 184N 661W     X  X  X 12 12
TVSV 131N 612W     X  X  8 12 20   MDPP 198N 707W     X  X  X  2  2
TLPL 138N 610W     X  X 10 11 21   ST CROIX VI        X  X  X 15 15
TFFF 146N 610W     X  X 11 10 21   ST THOMAS VI       X  X  X 14 14
TDPR 153N 614W     X  X  9 11 20   SAN JUAN PR        X  X  X 12 12
80400 157N 636W    X  X  1 16 17   PONCE PR           X  X  X 11 11

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM MON TO  2PM MON
C FROM  2PM MON TO  2AM TUE
D FROM  2AM TUE TO  2AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN


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