[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT31 KNHC 050654
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  45B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
3 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004

...LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUES MOVING INLAND...
...EASTERN PORTION OF EYEWALL WITH STRONG WINDS STILL TO COME...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND
BAHAMA...ABACO...BIMIMI AND THE BERRY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER
BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...ON THE WEST COAST...FROM ST. MARKS SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE PENNISULA TO JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FROM SOUTH OF
FLORIDA CITY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR FLORIDA BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM WEST OF ST. MARKS TO PANAMA CITY.

AT 3 AM EDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  80.4 WEST OR ABOUT 13 MILES
WEST OF STUART FLORIDA.  THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 25 MILES EAST OF
OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  8 MPH.  THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL HAS ALREADY MOVED WELL INLAND OVER
PORTIONS OF PALM BEACH...MARTIN AND ST. LUCIE COUNTIES.  A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE
ENTIRE EYE OF THE HURRICANE INLAND BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
RESIDENTS IN THE EYE OF FRANCES ARE URGED TO REMAIN INSIDE SAFE
SHELTER SINCE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE EYE...ACCOMPANIED BY
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH...MAY TAKE UP
TO ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS TO REACH SOME PORTIONS OF THE MARTIN AND ST.
LUCIE COUNTY COASTLINE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED AS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
EYEWALL MOVES ONSHORE. AFTERWARDS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.  A WIND GUST TO 95 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED
OVER THE NORTHERN END OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS  960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN
STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WEST AND SOUTH SIDES OF ISLANDS OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE PATH OF FRANCES.  STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST OF FLORIDA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH 20 INCHES OVER GRAND BAHAMA
IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...TO NEAR 20 INCHES...ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

REPEATING THE 3 AM EDT POSITION...27.2 N... 80.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB.

OR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


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