[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KTAE 041644
HLSTLH
FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ750-755-770-775-042300-

TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1245 PM EDT SAT SEP 4 2004

...FRANCES HEADING FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND
EVENTUALLY THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...FROM THE SUWANNEE
RIVER NORTHWARD TO ST. MARKS. A WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND INCLUDING GADSDEN...LIBERTY...FRANKLIN...LEON...
WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...MADISON...TAYLOR...LAFAYETTE AND DIXIE
COUNTIES.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO ST. MARKS...
WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:  GADSDEN...LIBERTY...
FRANKLIN...LEON...WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...MADISON...TAYLOR...LAFAYETTE
AND DIXIE.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...EAST OF PALM BEACH FLORIDA.
FRANCES HAS BEEN DRIFTING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR TODAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE LARGE EYE
OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BE VERY NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BY LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105
MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES. FRANCES REMAINS A
STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE IMPACT OF HURRICANE FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AFFECT AREA
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND
WITH THE CHANCES OF RAIN DRAMATICALLY INCREASING. THE IMPACT OF THE
STORM WILL BE FELT OVER THE AREA WELL INTO THE COMING WEEK. RESIDENTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF FRANCES FOR ANY CHANGES IN
MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY TO INCLUDE ALL OF
THE FLORIDA EASTERN PANHANDLE...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.
AT THIS TIME...OVERALL EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS FROM FRANCES
WILL BE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA...WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING WELL OVER THESE AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF FRANCES...THESE
AMOUNTS MAY BE HIGHER OR LOWER. FLOODING WILL RESULT OVER MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME THE SEVERITY AND
COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN. ALL RESIDENTS NEED TO MONITOR THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL OF THIS STORM.

...WIND IMPACTS...
OVER NORTH FLORIDA...NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...25 TO 35
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH...MAY DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AS FRANCES APPROACHES THE AREA...THE MAIN THREAT OF STORM SURGE
AND STORM TIDAL IMPACTS WOULD BE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
WAKULLA...COASTAL JEFFERSON...TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTIES. CURRENT
TIDES ARE AROUND NORMAL LEVELS...WITH EXPECTED RISES OF 1 TO 3 FEET
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL INCREASE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY.

THE LOCAL TIDES ARE AS FOLLOWS.

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
TODAY: HIGH/6:45 PM...LOW/11:47 PM
SUNDAY: HIGH/5:30 AM AND 7:50 PM...LOW/1:16 PM

APALACHEE BAY...SHELL POINT...
TODAY: HIGH/6:42 PM...LOW/11:42 PM
SUNDAY: HIGH/5:35 AM AND 7:47 PM...LOW/1:13 PM

APALACHICOLA...
TODAY: LOW/2:38 PM...HIGH/9:39 PM
SUNDAY: LOW:1:28 AM AND 3:34 PM...HIGH/7:19 AM AND 11:35 PM

MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER...
TODAY:  HIGH/6:31 PM
SUNDAY: HIGH/5:50 AM AND 7:32 PM...LOW/12:08 AM AND 1:16 PM

WAVES IN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WERE FROM 3
TO 5 FEET AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET NEAR
SHORE...6 TO 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN
IN PORT.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 700 PM EDT BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.

$$

TREXLER
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