[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KMLB 041640
HLSMLB
AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
041839-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1239 PM EDT SAT SEP 4 2004

...STRONG OUTER RAINBANDS WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH SPREADING
OVER INDIAN RIVER ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES...

...FRANCES GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND HEADING TOWARD EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST...

...FLOOD WARNING FOR INDIAN RIVER...MARTIN...ST. LUCIE COUNTIES...

...HURRICANE WARNING FROM SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FLORIDA CITY
WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING FOR ALL INTERIOR COUNTIES OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN
BY RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE...
ORANGE...BREVARD...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN
AND OKEECHOBEE.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
CONDITIONS ARE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING AS HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
MOVE ONSHORE IN OUTER RAINBANDS. POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREES AND
LIMBS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN COASTAL BREVARD COUNTY. WIND
GUSTS RANGING FROM 55 TO 67 MPH IN BREVARD COUNTY AND 59 MPH AT VERO
BEACH AND 87 MPH AT JUPITER INLET THIS MORNING. RESIDENTS OF
BREVARD...EASTERN OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES SHOULD STAY IN SHELTER THROUGH TONIGHT AS
CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET WORSE.

THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION WIND AND RAIN EVENT. DO NOT GET CAUGHT
TRYING TO DO THINGS OUTDOORS IN BETWEEN RAINBANDS...STAY PUT IN
SHELTER.  AS FRANCES MAKES LANDFALL THIS EVENING PEOPLE IN
AND CLOSE TO THE CORE OF MAXIMUM WINDS SHOULD TAKE SHELTER IN A SMALL
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR SUCH AS A CLOSET OR BATHROOM. PUT AS MANY
WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE HURRICANE WINDS AS POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. KEEP A BATTERY OPERATED NOAA WEATHER RADIO WITH YOU OR AM FM
RADIO TO RECEIVE UPDATES AND WARNINGS. TORNADO WARNINGS WILL BE
ISSUED IF A HIGH THREAT OF TORNADOES OR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WITH
HURRICANE RAINBANDS ARE FORECAST USING DOPPLER RADAR.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WITH WINDS OF 105 MPH...FRANCES IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE.
IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME REORGANIZATION AND STRENGTHENING WILL TAKE
PLACE TODAY AS FRANCES MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE GULF STREAM. FRANCES
COULD STILL MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY THREE STORM WITH WINDS NEAR
110 MPH.

AT 1155 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED STRONG WINDS AROUND THE LARGE CIRCULATION CENTER OF
HURRICANE FRANCES LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE
COUNTIES. THESE WINDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INNER CONVECTION OF
FRANCES AND WILL SUPPORT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH MOVING ONTO
THE COAST FROM FORT PIERCE TO JUPITER...AND THEN OVERSPREADING INLAND
SECTIONS. THE WINDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
STORM SURGE MODELS USING THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST INDICATE
THAT FRANCES WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL DURING THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BETWEEN JUPITER INLET AND CAPE
CANAVERAL. THIS WOULD PRODUCE MAXIMUM STORM TIDES OF SEVEN OR
EIGHT FEET NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL...MOST LIKELY BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES. NORTH OF
CAPE CANAVERAL...A SURGE OF 3 TO 4 FEET IS LIKELY. BATTERING WAVES OF
VERY LONG DURATION WILL BE OF GREAT CONCERN ALONG THE BEACHES.
SIGNIFICANT WIND AND WAVE DAMAGE IS LIKELY IN THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INDIAN RIVER...ST LUCIE AND
MARTIN COUNTIES THROUGH TONIGHT.   A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT 1220 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LARGE
AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE FRANCES COVERING
INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...AND MARTIN COUNTIES...AND EXTENDING
WELL OVER ONE HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC.

RADAR ESTIMATES BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER
THE WARNING AREA SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. CONTINUOUS RAINFALL RATES
OF BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
6 HOURS...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS
BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THIS WARNING IS LIKELY TO BE EXTENDED.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS...INTERSECTIONS
...LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL AS FLOODING OF RURAL
ROADS...SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MELBOURNE AND 95 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF FORT PIERCE.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS
MAKES FRANCES A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS FRANCES BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED.


...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTH TO
FLORIDA CITY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COASTAL COUNTIES...AND ALSO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...LAKE
...INLAND VOLUSIA AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER OUTER
RAINBANDS AND THE THREAT WILL INCREASE AS THE INNER RAINBANDS OF
FRANCES MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 3 PM
OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE
MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB

$$

DECKER

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