[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 041440
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  78.8 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM EDT TUE SEP  7 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

28.0N  81.2W      48  X  X  X 48   CEDAR KEY FL      18 10  1  X 29
28.5N  83.0W      23  6  X  1 30   ST MARKS FL        1 16  4  2 23
29.5N  85.0W       X 16  4  2 22   APALACHICOLA FL    X 15  5  2 22
MYGF 266N 787W    99  X  X  X 99   PANAMA CITY FL     X 10  9  2 21
MIAMI FL          10  X  X  1 11   PENSACOLA FL       X  2 11  5 18
W PALM BEACH FL   43  X  X  X 43   MOBILE AL          X  X  9  7 16
FT PIERCE FL      57  X  X  X 57   GULFPORT MS        X  X  6  8 14
COCOA BEACH FL    55  X  X  X 55   BURAS LA           X  X  4  7 11
DAYTONA BEACH FL  41  X  X  X 41   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  3  8 11
JACKSONVILLE FL   11 10  1  1 23   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  1  7  8
SAVANNAH GA        X  5  5  3 13   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  X  4  4
CHARLESTON SC      X  1  3  3  7   GALVESTON TX       X  X  X  2  2
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  1  2  3   GULF 29N 85W       X 16  4  1 21
MARCO ISLAND FL   10  1  X  1 12   GULF 29N 87W       X  4  9  3 16
FT MYERS FL       20  1  X  X 21   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  4  4  8
VENICE FL         22  1  1  X 24   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  1  4  5
TAMPA FL          31  1  1  X 33   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM SUN TO  8PM SUN
C FROM  8PM SUN TO  8AM MON
D FROM  8AM MON TO  8AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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