[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT41 KNHC 041439
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004

MIAMI WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS THAT FRANCES HAS DEVELOPED A LARGE EYE OF
ABOUT 70 NMI IN DIAMETER. SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND RECON SUGGESTS THAT AN
EYEWALL MAY BE FORMING. HOWEVER...INITIAL INTENSITY CONTINUES AT 90
KNOTS AND BECAUSE THE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 12 TO 18 MORE HOURS OVER
WARM WATERS AND THE SHEAR MAY RELAX...THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL.

RADAR AND RECON INDICATE THAT FRANCES HAS BEEN DRIFTING BETWEEN THE
WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AND BECAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE
NORTH IS FORECAST TO BUILD FURTHER...A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
BETWEEN 5 AND 8 KNOTS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH CONSISTENTLY HAS FORECAST
THE HURRICANE TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA. FRANCES HAS A LARGE EYE AND
IS MOVING SLOWLY. THEREFORE...THOSE IN THE PATH OF THE CENTER WILL
EXPERIENCE THE CALM OF THE EYE FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. IN
ADDITION...THIS HURRICANE COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS
PATH.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/1500Z 26.9N  78.8W    90 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 27.3N  79.5W    95 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 28.0N  81.2W    65 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 28.5N  83.0W    50 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 29.5N  85.0W    60 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 32.0N  88.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     08/1200Z 34.5N  89.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     09/1200Z 39.6N  86.5W    20 KT...INLAND


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