[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KJAX 040856
HLSJAX
FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-041530-

HURRICANE FRANCES LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 4 2004

...FRANCES MOVING ALONG GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL...ST.
JOHNS...FLAGLER...BAKER...CLAY...PUTNAM...MARION...HAMILTON...
COLUMBIA...SUWANNEE...UNION...BRADFORD...ALACHUA AND GILCHRIST.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA...
...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CLAY MARION
AND PUTNAM COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MAYPORT FLORIDA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 125 MILES
EAST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
LARGE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE VERY NEAR THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

FRANCES IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL.

LOCAL EFFECTS FROM HURRICANE FRANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR
TO THOSE EXPERIENCED LOCALLY DURING HURRICANE ERIN IN 1995.

THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ALONG
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...BUT A SHIFT IN TRACK TO THE RIGHT COULD RESULT
IN HURRICANE CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE FRANCES BRINGS THE CENTER
INLAND SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AREA...THERE IS ALWAYS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD
BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE WATCH AREA.

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
THE MOST RECENT TRACK FORECAST HAS THE STORM MOVING ON A MORE
WESTWARD COURSE AND THIS IS DECREASING THE THREAT OF FLOODING
RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP AS THE STORM MOVES CLOSER DURING THE WEEKEND.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DUVAL COUNTY...
THERE ARE NO EVACUATIONS FOR DUVAL COUNTY AT THIS TIME.  ANY
EVACUATIONS FOR DUVAL COUNTY WILL BE ADDRESSED AT 700 AM TODAY.

ST JOHNS COUNTY...
SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS HAVE BEEN OPENED FOR ELECTRICALLY DEPENDANT
CITIZENS. THE SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS ARE LOCATED AT THE ST JOHNS
COUNTY AGRICULTURAL CENTER AND THE HASTINGS COMMUNITY CENTER.

A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION RECOMMENDED FOR MOBILE AND MANUFACTURED
HOMES...OCCUPIED RECREATIONAL VEHICLES...BOAT RESIDENTS AND SPECIAL
ATTENTION TO CITIZENS LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING
BY RAIN LOCATED THROUGHOUT ST JOHNS COUNTY.  A SHELTER HAS BEEN
OPENED AT PEDRO MENENDEZ HIGH SCHOOL IN ST. AUGUSTINE.

RESIDENTS WHO FEEL THEIR HOME IS SAFE FROM FLOODING AND WIND DO NOT
NEED TO EVACUATE AT THIS TIME.

FLAGLER COUNTY...
A MANDATORY EVACUATION STARTING AT 6 AM TODAY IS BEING ORDERED
FOR THE AREA EAST OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY.

A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS ALSO BEING ORDERED FOR ALL MODULAR...
MANUFACTURED...MOBILE HOMES...OCCUPIED RECREATIONAL VEHICLES...AND
ALL HOMES IN LOW-LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS THROUGHOUT FLAGLER COUNTY.

THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION IN THE CITY OF PALM COAST FOR
RESIDENTS OF THE WOODLANDS AND ALL RESIDENTS ON SALTWATER CANALS
EAST OF FLORIDA PARK DRIVE OR PALM HARBOR PARKWAY...NORTH OF PALM
COAST PARKWAY...AT NOON TODAY. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT
BEGINNING AT 6 AM TODAY FOR THE AFFECTED AREAS.

THIS EVACUATION MUST BE COMPLETED BY 3 PM TODAY.

GENERAL AREA INFORMATION...
REVIEW YOUR FAMILYS HURRICANE PLAN AND HURRICANE KIT. MARINE
INTERESTS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR HURRICANE PLANS. INTERESTS IN NORMALLY
FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE URGED TO TAKE ACTIONS TO SECURE LIFE AND
PROPERTY PRIOR THE ONSET OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF A
NORMAL TIDE ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANY TRACK
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH MAY RESULT IN HIGHER TIDES LOCALLY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
TODAY...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. THESE WINDS ARE A RESULT OF AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE CIRCULATION OF FRANCES
AND ARE NOT DIRECTLY A RESULT OF THE HURRICANE.

WINDS ALONG THE NASSAU AND DUVAL COUNTY COASTAL AREAS WILL INCREASE
TO 30 TO 35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH. FOR ST JOHNS AND
FLAGLER COUNTY COASTAL AREAS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TO 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH...BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
WINDS IN THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
BE OVER THE OCALA NATIONAL FOREST AND ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER.

ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF NASSAU AND DUVAL COUNTIES
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. FOR ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTY COASTAL AREAS SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH ARE
EXPECTED.

AT THIS TIME...SUSTAINED WINDS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.

...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...WINDS OVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL
WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ON TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD SWELL...SEAS WILL BE NEAR
12 FEET TODAY AND BUILD TO OVER 20 FEET BY SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD STAY IN PORT. THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS WILL SEE WINDS
INCREASING TO 30 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM...LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
CONTINUING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
HURRICANE FRANCES POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS IT MOVES INLAND. DEPENDING UPON THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT...SOME AREAS
ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO
12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAIN BANDS WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING NORTHEAST FLORIDA LATE TODAY...AND HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS
EARLY AS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

BASED ON A MORE WESTWARD PREDICTED TRACK OF FRANCES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...RAINFALL TOTALS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER IF THE STORM
WERE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE WILL BE A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES AS THE STORM MOVES BY
THE AREA THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. REMEMBER EVEN A WEAKENING TROPICAL
STORM CAN PRODUCE DAMAGING TORNADOES. REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 AM EDT.

$$

SANDRIK

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