[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT74 KNHC 040849
SPFAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT SEP 04 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE  9.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  37.4 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM AST TUE SEP  7 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

 9.7N  43.0W      49  X  X  X 49   TLPL 138N 610W     X  X  X  6  6
10.5N  46.2W       3 31  1  X 35   TFFF 146N 610W     X  X  X  6  6
11.4N  49.4W       X 11 15  X 26   TDPR 153N 614W     X  X  X  6  6
TTPP 106N 614W     X  X  X  2  2   80400 157N 636W    X  X  X  2  2
TTPT 112N 608W     X  X  X  3  3   TFFR 163N 615W     X  X  X  6  6
TGPY 120N 618W     X  X  X  2  2   TAPA 171N 618W     X  X  X  5  5
TBPB 131N 595W     X  X  X  9  9   TKPK 173N 627W     X  X  X  3  3
TVSV 131N 612W     X  X  X  5  5   TNCM 181N 631W     X  X  X  3  3

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM SUN TO  2PM SUN
C FROM  2PM SUN TO  2AM MON
D FROM  2AM MON TO  2AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER RHOME/JARVINEN


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