[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT41 KNHC 040847
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004

FRANCES APPEARS TO BE IN A STEADY STATE...WITH CENTRAL PRESSURES
REMAINING NEAR 960 MB. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED BY THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 97 KT...AND A DROPSONDE IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT NEAR 03Z REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KT. BASED
ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT.  ENVIRONMENTAL
WESTERLY SHEAR IS STILL PRESENT...ALTHOUGH THE INNER CORE
CONVECTION HAS PERHAPS BECOME A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC.  GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A LESSENING OF THIS SHEAR OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AND SO THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE
STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...PARTICULARLY IF THE FORWARD SPEED
INCREASES A BIT.  FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE THRESHOLD
OF CATEGORY TWO/THREE UNTIL LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/5. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
REASONING. A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE FRANCES BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST PRIOR TO
LANDFALL AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AFTER 24 HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...AND
IS NEAR THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/0900Z 26.6N  78.1W    90 KT
 12HR VT     04/1800Z 27.0N  78.8W    90 KT
 24HR VT     05/0600Z 27.5N  80.3W    95 KT...NEAR FL COASTLINE
 36HR VT     05/1800Z 28.2N  82.0W    55 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     06/0600Z 29.0N  84.0W    45 KT...OVER GULF OF MEXICO
 72HR VT     07/0600Z 32.0N  87.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     08/0600Z 35.5N  88.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     09/0600Z 39.5N  87.0W    20 KT...INLAND


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