[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 040835
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  78.1 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM EDT TUE SEP  7 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

27.5N  80.3W      47  X  X  X 47   VENICE FL         17  5  X  X 22
28.2N  82.0W      23  6  1  X 30   TAMPA FL          16  9  1  X 26
29.0N  84.0W       X 16  4  2 22   CEDAR KEY FL       3 19  1  1 24
MYGF 266N 787W    99  X  X  X 99   ST MARKS FL        X  9 10  2 21
MARATHON FL        1  1  X  X  2   APALACHICOLA FL    X  8 10  2 20
MIAMI FL          18  1  X  X 19   PANAMA CITY FL     X  4 11  4 19
W PALM BEACH FL   40  X  X  1 41   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  9  7 16
FT PIERCE FL      47  X  X  X 47   MOBILE AL          X  X  4 10 14
COCOA BEACH FL    42  X  X  X 42   GULFPORT MS        X  X  3 10 13
DAYTONA BEACH FL  22  7  X  X 29   BURAS LA           X  X  2  8 10
JACKSONVILLE FL    1 15  3  2 21   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  1  8  9
SAVANNAH GA        X  3  6  5 14   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  X  6  6
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  3  6  9   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  X  2  2
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  1  3  4   GULF 29N 85W       X 10  8  2 20
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  2  2   GULF 29N 87W       X  1  9  5 15
MARCO ISLAND FL   14  2  X  X 16   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  2  5  7
FT MYERS FL       20  2  X  X 22   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  4  4

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM SUN TO  2PM SUN
C FROM  2PM SUN TO  2AM MON
D FROM  2AM MON TO  2AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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