[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KEYW 040253
HLSEYW
FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-040630-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...HURRICANE FRANCES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004

...FRANCES SLOWLY APPROACHING GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

...HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO RAKE THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...

...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE...
STORM INFORMATION UPDATED.
PROBABILITIES UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS TO
BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE EFFECTS
OF HURRICANE FRANCES.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
KEYS...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH
ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNED AREA...WITHIN 24 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES
NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST...AND 160 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF OCEAN REEF.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION CAN
BE EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES FRANCES A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  960 MB...28.35 INCHES OF
MERCURY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT IN MONROE COUNTY. ALL MONROE
COUNTY LIBRARIES ARE CLOSED. THE MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR NON
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS HAS BEEN LIFTED. THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS
SHOULD SECURE OBJECTS THAT CAN BE BLOWN ABOUT BY GUSTY WINDS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 60 MPH...OVER THE UPPER
AND MIDDLE KEYS...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY. THE LOWER KEYS CAN EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
MPH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. PASSING SQUALLS WILL CREATE PERIODS
OF HIGHER WINDS OVER BOTH THE ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT THE KEYS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT INTO SUNDAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FEET BEYOND THE REEF OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER KEYS OVERNIGHT. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BE
AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS.

...PROBABILITIES...
THE CHANCE THAT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL PASS WITHIN 75
MILES OF KEY WEST BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY NIGHT IS 5 PERCENT...8
PERCENT FOR MARATHON...AND 26 PERCENT FOR MIAMI.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE FRANCES
IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 AM EDT.

$$

LK














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