[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT31 KNHC 040243
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER  41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004

...FRANCES SLOWLY APPROACHING GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...
...HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO RAKE THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.  A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST FROM BONITA BEACH EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF
FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REAMINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD
TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO THE
SUWANNEE RIVER.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES
...110 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THIS IS
ALSO ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  6 MPH
... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND
SOME ERRATIC MOTION CAN BE EXPECTED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
LARGE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE VERY NEAR THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THIS MAKES FRANCES A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES...175 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 81 MPH WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED ON NORTH ELEUTHERA ISLAND. DURING THE PAST HOUR...HAM
RADIO OPERATORS AT HOPETOWN ON ABACO ISLAND REPORTED WIND SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 69 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 81 MPH AT HOPETOWN. THE SETTLEMENT
POINT C-MAN STATION ON WESTERN GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 59 MPH WITH A GUST TO 75 MPH...WHILE A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 44 MPH WITH A GUST TO 52 MPH WERE REPORTED AT THE
LAKE WORTH FLORIDA C-MAN STATION.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  960 MB...28.35 INCHES. A
SHIP IN MARSH HARBOR RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 960 MB.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE EYE
OF FRANCES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.  STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS. COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LAKE WATER LEVEL IS EXPECTED
IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES...
ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES OVER THE BAHAMAS.

SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 77.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


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