[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT74 KNHC 032048
SPFAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI SEP 03 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE  8.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  34.6 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM AST MON SEP  6 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

 8.7N  40.3W      47  X  X  X 47   TLPL 138N 610W     X  X  X  2  2
 9.0N  43.4W       4 29  X  X 33   TFFF 146N 610W     X  X  X  2  2
 9.8N  46.6W       X 11 14  1 26   TDPR 153N 614W     X  X  X  2  2
TBPB 131N 595W     X  X  X  4  4   TFFR 163N 615W     X  X  X  2  2
TVSV 131N 612W     X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM SAT TO  2AM SUN
C FROM  2AM SUN TO  2PM SUN
D FROM  2PM SUN TO  2PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH


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