[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 032047
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  77.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT MON SEP  6 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

27.4N  80.0W      49  X  X  X 49   FT MYERS FL       18  3  X  1 22
28.0N  81.5W      27  5  X  X 32   VENICE FL         11  9  1  1 22
28.5N  82.5W       6 18  1  1 26   TAMPA FL           9 15  1  1 26
MYNN 251N 775W    99  X  X  X 99   CEDAR KEY FL       1 18  2  2 23
MYGF 266N 787W    70  X  X  X 70   ST MARKS FL        X  4  9  5 18
MARATHON FL        2  1  X  1  4   APALACHICOLA FL    X  3  9  5 17
MIAMI FL          26  X  X  1 27   PANAMA CITY FL     X  1  8  7 16
W PALM BEACH FL   44  X  X  X 44   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  3 10 13
FT PIERCE FL      45  1  X  X 46   MOBILE AL          X  X  1  9 10
COCOA BEACH FL    39  X  X  X 39   GULFPORT MS        X  X  1  7  8
DAYTONA BEACH FL  16 12  1  X 29   BURAS LA           X  X  X  6  6
JACKSONVILLE FL    X 13  4  3 20   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  5  5
SAVANNAH GA        X  1  6  7 14   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  X  3  3
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  2  8 10   GULF 29N 85W       X  5  8  4 17
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  6  6   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  5  6 11
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  3  3   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  1  4  5
KEY WEST FL        1  X  X  1  2   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  2  2
MARCO ISLAND FL   14  2  X  1 17

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM SAT TO  2AM SUN
C FROM  2AM SUN TO  2PM SUN
D FROM  2PM SUN TO  2PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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