[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT41 KNHC 032046
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT FRANCES
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND
REMAINS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100
KNOTS BUT...BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...INSTRUMENT ON BOARD A NOAA
AIRCRAFT...THE WIND FIELD APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING A LITTLE BIT.
THIS NECESSITATES EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.  THE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS TO
STRENGTHEN...IF AT ALL...WHILE MOVING OVER WATER.  ALTHOUGH NONE OF
THE GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT STREGTHENING...THERE IS A SMALL
OPPORTUNITY FOR FRANCES TO RE-INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT AS IT PASSES OVER
THE GULF STREAM AND APPROACHES THE FLORIDA COAST.

AS ANTICIPATED...THE HURRICANE IS MOVING RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE
USUAL WOBBLES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES OR WEST-NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS AND A TRACK BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. BECAUSE NEITHER THE STEERING NOR THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAVE CHANGED..THERE IS NO POINT TO DISCUSS IT AGAIN.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FRANCES...A POWERFUL HURRICANE...IS
FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL CAN NOT BE SPECIFIED EXACTLY.

BECAUSE FRANCES IS A SLOW MOVING HURRICANE...IT COULD BRING
TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/2100Z 25.9N  77.5W   100 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 26.5N  78.4W   100 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 27.4N  80.0W   105 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 28.0N  81.5W    70 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 28.5N  82.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 31.1N  85.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     07/1800Z 35.1N  87.0W    20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     08/1800Z 40.0N  85.0W    20 KT...INLAND


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