[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT31 KNHC 032041
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004

...OUTER SQUALLS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES MOVING OVER THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST...WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
GRADUALLY...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.  A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A HURRICANE
WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF
FLAGLER BEACH NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...
145 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND 200
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA LOWER EAST COAST.

FRANCES HAS BEEN WOBBELING BUT IN GENERAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.  A WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND WILL BE NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS
959 MB...28.32 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 14 FEET ABOVER NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
IN FLORIDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LAKE WATER
LEVEL IS EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES...
ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...25.9 N... 77.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 959 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

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