[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KMFL 030955
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>068-070>074-031600-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
600 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004

...WIND AND SQUALLS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PERSONS IN PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE...
COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...INCLUDING METRO PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
COUNTIES.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY
EXCEPT COASTAL COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WEST
PALM BEACH...OR ABOUT 270 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE...OR ABOUT 265
MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI BEACH. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST
NEAR 9 MPH AND A NORTHWEST TO WEST NORTHWEST MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FRANCES REMAINS A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE THREAT FROM HURRICANE FRANCES WILL VERY LONG IN DURATION. DO NOT BE LULLED
INTO A FALSE SENSE OF SECURITY SIMPLY BECAUSE THE HURRICANE HAS SLOWED DOWN.
THIS REMAINS A VERY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MIAMI-DADE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED AN EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS IN
EVACUATION ZONES A AND B...INCLUDING BARRIER ISLANDS...MOBILE HOMES...KEY
BISCAYNE...MIAMI BEACH AND ALL LOW LYING AREAS AND COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 1. EVACUATION CENTERS IN MIAMI-DADE ARE OPEN.

PALM BEACH EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL
PERSONS IN EVACUATION AREAS A AND B...INCLUDING MOBILE HOMES AND BARRIER ISLANDS
AND THE LAKE SIDE OF THE HOOVER DIKE. PALM BEACH SHELTERS ARE OPEN.

BROWARD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR
PERSONS LIVING ON BARRIER ISLANDS AND ALL MOBILE HOMES. BROWARD SHELTERS ARE
OPEN BUT EVACUEES ARE URGED TO STAY WITH FRIENDS OR RELATIVES.

GLADES COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION
OF MOBILE HOMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY. SHELTERS
ARE OPEN.

HENDRY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL LOCK DOWN THE FORT DENAUD BRIDGE ONCE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REACH THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. HENDRY COUNTY
SHELTERS ARE OPEN FOR VOLUNTARY EVACUATION.

COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS OPENED FOUR HOST EVACUATION SHELTERS
AND SPECIAL NEEDS AND SEVEN MORE SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 2 PM TODAY. COLLIER
HOTELS ARE FULL.

ALL SCHOOLS IN SOUTH FLORIDA ARE CLOSED TODAY. CALL YOUR LOCAL
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HOTLINE NUMBERS AVAILABLE ON COMMERCIAL
TELEVISION AND RADIO FOR DETAILED INFORMATION.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
MAXIMUM STORM TIDES OF 7 TO 10 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ARE POSSIBLE
JUST NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. STORM TIDE IS A COMBINATION
OF STORM SURGE FROM THE HURRICANE AND THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS. LANDFALL IS
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND THEREFORE ACTUAL STORM
SURGE WILL DEPEND ENTIRELY UPON WHEN AND WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.
THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR A LANDFALL NORTH OF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE LAKE LEVEL THURSDAY WAS 13.6 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE WATER WOULD BE PUSHED UP AS
MUCH AS 8 TO 10 FEET HIGHER ON THE LAKE SIDE OF THE DIKE IN GLADES...
HENDRY...AND WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES FROM THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING
CREEK ALL THE WAY AROUND TO PORT MAYACA INCLUDING MOORE HAVEN...
CLEWISTON...SOUTH BAY...BELLE GLADE AND PAHOKEE. THE MAXIMUM STORM
TIDE INSIDE HOOVER DIKE WOULD THEREFORE BE ABOUT 24 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL ON THE WEST AND SOUTH SIDES OF THE LAKE AND AS HIGH AS 20
FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ON THE EAST SIDE. THE HOOVER DIKE PROTECTS
INHABITED AREAS TO AT LEAST 30 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. RITTA...
KREAMER AND TORRY ISLANDS WOULD BE FLOODED AT THESE LEVELS INCLUDING
SOME CAMPGROUNDS AND ROADS. IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE EXACT
IMPACT ON THE LAKE STILL DEPENDS ON HOW CLOSE AND FROM WHAT DIRECTION
FRANCES APPROACHES THE LAKE.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. RESIDENTS OF THE
METRO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COUNTIES CAN EXPECT SQUALLS PRODUCING GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MILES AN HOUR LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT...PRIMARILY FROM NORTHEAST BROWARD NORTH INTO
PALM BEACH COUNTY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WOULD AFFECT MAINLY THE PALM BEACH
METRO AREAS WITH HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS METRO BROWARD
BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WOULD BE A VERY LONG TIME FOR SUCH STRONG WINDS...WHICH MEANS A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES AND EXTENSIVE
DAMAGE TO WEAKER STRUCTURES LIKE GAS STATION ROOFS PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS.

WINDS OVER INLAND SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WOULD INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS BY SATURDAY MORNING AND LAST WELL INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH HURRICANE
FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS
IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THE WIND EFFECTS WOULD CHANGE DRAMATICALLY SHOULD
THE TRACK OF FRANCES CHANGE.

BE SURE TO STORE ALL LAWN FURNITURE AND GARBAGE BINS. SECURE SWING SETS AND
PICK UP LOOSE YARD ITEMS. REMOVE COCONUTS FROM PALM TREES BECAUSE THEY CAN
BECOME DEADLY MISSILES IN HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY
DETERIORATE TODAY WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING LASTING WELL INTO SUNDAY. ON
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AND REACH HURRICANE FORCE LATE SATURDAY LASTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MARINERS
SHOULD SECURE THEIR BOATS IN SAFE HARBOR ALLOWING EXTRA LINE FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF STORM SURGE LEVELS OR DRY DOCK AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. AGAIN IT MUST BE
EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF
FRANCES. SHOULD THE TRACK CHANGE THE MARINE IMPACTS WOULD CHANGE GREATLY.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF FRANCES MEANS THAT AN EXTREME RAINFALL AND FLOOD EVENT IS
LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALONG AND NORTH OF
WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20
INCHES AND MORE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN SIMILAR VERY SLOW MOVING HURRICANES.
SQUALLS WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING RAINFALL WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS AND FINALLY THE MAXIMUM RAINS WITH
THE CENTER AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AGAIN A VERY LONG DURATION. FORECAST
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY IN PALM BEACH COUNTY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FROM 8 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS CLOSER TO WHERE FRANCES CROSSES THE COASTLINE. IN GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES...MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. FROM 2
TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF FRANCES. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT
COASTAL COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE IS A THREAT OF TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF FRANCES. THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING INTO SUNDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED HURRICANE FRANCES LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND NOON TODAY.

$$

SANTOS/PFOST

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