[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KEYW 030931
HLSEYW
FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-031230-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...HURRICANE FRANCES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
530 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004

...A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FROM
OCEAN REEF TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...

...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE...
STORM LOCATION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
WE HAVE EXTENDED THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE INTO SATURDAY.
WE HAVE UPDATED STRIKE PROBABILITIES.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS TO
BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE EFFECTS
OF HURRICANE FRANCES.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO FLORIDA CITY
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH
ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNED AREA...WITHIN 24 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 500 AM THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES EAST OF OCEAN
REEF. FRANCES WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
FRANCES WAS STILL A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 954 MB...OR
28.17 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT IN MONROE COUNTY AND ALL COUNTY
OFFICES ARE CLOSED. SCHOOLS AND LIBRARIES ARE CLOSED TODAY.

THE COUNTY HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR NON-RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY AT MILE MARKER 72. ALL
RECREATIONAL VEHICLES IN THE KEYS SHOULD LEAVE.

AN EVACUATION WILL BE REQUIRED FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS IN THE UPPER
AND MIDDLE KEYS IF AND WHEN A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED. TOLLS HAVE
BEEN SUSPENDED ON CARD SOUND ROAD. YOU MAY ALSO EVACUATE TO THE LOWER
KEYS AND KEY WEST.

SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 800 AM TODAY. SHELTERS ARE LOCATED AT:
CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL ON PLANTATION KEY.
STANLEY SWITLIK SCHOOL IN MARATHON.
GLYNN ARCHER SCHOOL IN KEY WEST.

RESIDENTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS.
PLEASE REMEMBER THAT HURRICANE TRACK FORECASTS CONTAIN SOME AMOUNT OF
ERROR. CHECK FREQUENTLY FOR LATER UPDATES.

JOHN PENNEKAMP AND LONG KEY STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED.

...WIND IMPACTS...
RECENT WINDS AT MOLASSES REEF AT KEY LARGO...AND AT FOWEY ROCKS IN
BISCAYNE BAY...WERE FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. BRIEFLY
HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER KEYS SATURDAY MORNING.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT THE KEYS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT TODAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET BEYOND THE REEF THIS AFTERNOON...AND UP TO
10 TO 15 FEET OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS LATER TONIGHT.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
TIDE LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS ARE NEAR NORMAL AT THIS TIME.
DAMAGING STORM SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED. THE STRONG NORTH WINDS MAY
CAUSE TIDE LEVELS TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE GULF AND BAY SIDES
OF THE KEYS. SOME SLIGHT OVERWASH MAY TAKE PLACE AT MILE MARKER 75.

TIMES OF HIGH TIDES TODAY AND SATURDAY:
OCEAN REEF IN KEY LARGO...1223 PM...1231 AM SATURDAY.
VACA CUT IN MARATHON...1237 PM...1222 AM SATURDAY.
WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL...1249 PM...1257 AM SATURDAY.
KEY WEST HARBOR...148 PM...133 AM SATURDAY.

...PROBABILITIES...
THE CHANCE THAT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL PASS WITHIN 75
MILES OF KEY WEST BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY EVENING IS 6 PERCENT. IT
IS 8 PERCENT FOR MARATHON AND 22 PERCENT FOR MIAMI.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE FRANCES
IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 AM EDT.

$$

DFM/JR
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