[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT31 KNHC 030552
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  37A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004

...FRANCES WEAKENS SLIGHTLY MORE ...STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.  A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD
TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED BY
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE  75.7 WEST OR NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF CAT ISLAND.  THIS
IS ALSO ABOUT 310 MILES...495 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA
LOWER EAST COAST.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/HR
...AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  FRANCES IS STILL A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  80 MILES...130 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE WEST SIDE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND...AND
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES...
ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...24.7 N... 75.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


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