[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KMLB 030355
HLSMLB
AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
031000-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1155 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES STILL HEADING FOR THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST...

...HURRICANE WARNINGS FROM FLORIDA CITY TO FLAGLER BEACH
INCLUDING ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. INLAND HURRICANE
WIND WARNING FOR INTERIOR COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN
BY RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE...
ORANGE...BREVARD...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN
AND OKEECHOBEE.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTH TO
FLORIDA CITY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COASTAL COUNTIES...AND ALSO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...LAKE
...INLAND VOLUSIA AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...AND MAY BE EXTENDED.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS NEAR LATITUDE
24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT 330 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA LOWER EAST COAST.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION!!!
PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MUST RUSH HURRICANE PLANS TO
COMPLETION AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A LAST WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FRIDAY TO COMPLETE PREPARATION BEFORE THE ONSET OF HIGH
WINDS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF LOCAL
OFFICIALS...AND LEAVE IMMEDIATELY IF TOLD TO DO SO. IF YOU LIVE ON
THE BARRIER ISLANDS OR IN A MOBILE OR MANUFACTURED HOME OR A FLOOD
PRONE AREA YOU SHOULD SECURE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS AND EVACUATE. IF
YOU ARE EVACUATING THE AREA...LEAVE AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.

...WIND IMPACTS...
THE WIND THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXTREME. THE THREAT IS
MUCH GREATER FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED
WITH HURRICANE CHARLEY. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH FRANCES ARE
NEAR 125 MPH. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN BEFORE...FRANCES IS STILL
A MAJOR HURRICANE...WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY STILL LIKELY.

IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT PEOPLE NOT BASE THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
SOLELY ON THE CENTER TRACK OF FRANCES. FRANCES IS A VERY LARGE
HURRICANE AND WILL THEREFORE HAVE A WIDE SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK ITSELF. ALL RESIDENTS
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MUST MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT EVEN SOME INLAND LOCATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WINDS NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WITH WINDS
OF THIS STRENGTH...LARGE TREES ARE BLOWN DOWN WITH EXTENSIVE DAMAGE
TO ROOFING MATERIALS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS. WELL BUILT HOMES WITHOUT
HURRICANE SHUTTERS OR WINDOW COVERINGS CAN SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE.
SMALL STRUCTURES MAY EXPERIENCE COMPLETE ROOF FAILURES...WITH SOME
MOBILE HOMES EXPERIENCING COMPLETE DESTRUCTION.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MOVING ONSHORE
OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS
EXTREME. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE EYE OF FRANCES MOVES
ONSHORE. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF FRANCES AT LEAST TWO HIGH
TIDE CYCLES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING HURRICANE CONDITIONS. SIGNIFICANT
WIND AND WAVE DAMAGE IS LIKELY IN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
ONE OF THE MORE DANGEROUS ASPECTS OF THE PASSAGE OF HURRICANE FRANCES
WILL BE FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AND MAY BE
EXTENDED. 10 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS FRANCES CROSSES THE
STATE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE SIZE OF FRANCES...AND
ITS SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE GREATEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTER TRACK. PLACES ALREADY
SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO SERIOUS
FLOODING. RESIDENTS ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR NEAR RECORD FLOODING IF EXCESSIVE RAIN DEVELOPS. SANDBAGS ARE
AVAILABLE AT MANY COUNTY LOCATIONS FOR RESIDENTS.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
THE MARINE THREAT TO THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS
EXTREME. TROPICAL STORM WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASING TO HURRICANE CONDITIONS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THE TORNADO THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS MODERATE. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR TORNADOES. IMPORTANTLY...TORNADOES
MAY BE THE FIRST THREAT TO ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
CENTER TRACK AND IN PROXIMITY OF THE COAST. OF COURSE...TORNADOES
WITHIN THE INNER RAINBANDS AND EYEWALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM
OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE
MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB

$$

DECKER

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net