[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KMLB 020956
HLSMLB
AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
021600-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
555 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES STILL FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE EAST FLORIDA COAST...

...IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT CENTRAL FLORIDIANS STAY INFORMED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...TAKING THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO
SAVE LIFE AND PROPERTY...

...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST AS FRANCES CONTINUES ITS APPROACH...

...AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INTERIOR
COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ALL
COUNTIES...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN
BY RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE...
ORANGE...BREVARD...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN
AND OKEECHOBEE.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTH TO
CRAIG KEY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COASTAL COUNTIES...AND ALSO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...LAKE AND
SEMINOLE COUNTIES. RESIDENTS SHOULD ANTICIPATE THE POSTING OF
HURRICANE WARNINGS LATER TODAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT THE CENTER OF SEVERE HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST OR ABOUT 520 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALM BEACH FLORIDA. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE URGES PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
HAVE A CLEAR PLAN AS THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING SITUATION. TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THE DAY TIME HOURS
TODAY IN ORDER TO SECURE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. BE SURE TO STORE
OR REMOVE ALL LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS. WITH EXTREME WINDS...EVEN
SOMEWHAT HEAVIER OBJECTS CAN BECOME AIRBORNE PROJECTILES. DO NOT WAIT
UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE. BE SURE THAT YOU HAVE ALL OF YOUR SUPPLIES ON
HAND...INCLUDING NON-PERISHABLE FOOD AND WATER. HAVE EXTRA CASH ON
HAND AND LOCATE YOUR INSURANCE POLICIES. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE
HOME...PLAN ON LEAVING. BE SURE YOU KNOW THE LOCATION OF THE
NEAREST SHELTER. FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...AND
LEAVE IMMEDIATELY IF TOLD TO DO SO.

IF YOU ARE EVACUATING THE AREA...LEAVE AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE. BE SURE
TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECAST TO ENSURE THAT YOU ARE SAFELY
REMOVED FROM FRANCES. REMEMBER...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST ARE TO
BE EXPECTED.

...WIND IMPACTS...
THE WIND THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXTREME. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH FRANCES ARE NEAR 145 MPH...BUT SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY WILL BE LIKELY. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT
PEOPLE NOT BASE THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SOLELY ON THE CENTER TRACK
OF FRANCES. FRANCES IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND WILL THEREFORE HAVE
A WIDE SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK ITSELF. ALL RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA MUST MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WITH THE
UNDERSTANDING THAT SOME LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE MAJOR
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. WITH CATEGORY FOUR FORCE WINDS...LARGE TREES
ARE BLOWN DOWN WITH EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFING MATERIALS...
WINDOWS...AND DOORS. SMALL STRUCTURES MAY EXPERIENCE COMPLETE ROOF
FAILURES...WITH MOBILE HOMES EXPERIENCING COMPLETE DESTRUCTION.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MOVING
ONSHORE FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE
STRONGEST WINDS AROUND THE CORE OF FRANCES WILL MAKE LANDFALL
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS
EXTREME. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE EYE OF FRANCES MOVES
ONSHORE. SIGNIFICANT WIND AND WAVE DAMAGE IS LIKELY IN THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
THE FLOOD THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXTREME. TEN TO TWELVE
INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS FRANCES CROSSES THE STATE.
THESE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF
FRANCES...AND THAT IT IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE
PENINSULA. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CENTER TRACK. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PLACES ALREADY SATURATED
FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO SERIOUS FLOODING.
RESIDENTS ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
FLOODING IF EXCESSIVE RAIN DEVELOPS.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
THE MARINE THREAT TO THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS
EXTREME. FRANCES IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FRIDAY...
THEN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. AN
INCREASING EASTERLY SWELL WILL ALSO PRECEDE THE HURRICANE TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...INCREASING TO HURRICANE CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THE TORNADO THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS MODERATE. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR TORNADOES. IMPORTANTLY...TORNADOES
STAND TO BE THE FIRST THREAT TO ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
CENTER TRACK AND IN PROXIMITY OF THE COAST. OF COURSE...TORNADOES
WITHIN THE INNER RAINBANDS AND EYEWALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE
MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB

$$

DWS

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