[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KMFL 020953
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>068-070>074-021500-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
555 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE INCLUDING METRO PALM BEACH, BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE...

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA
COUNTIES EXCEPT COASTAL COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE...

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA COUNTIES EXCEPT
COASTAL COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PERSONS IN COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES...PALM
BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT
510 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WEST PALM BEACH...OR ABOUT 495 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE...OR ABOUT 490 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
MIAMI BEACH. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN AT LEAST 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. EMERGENCY
SERVICES PERSONNEL MAY NEED TO INSTALL SHUTTERS AND TAKE ALL
HURRICANE PRECAUTIONS DURING THE WATCH PHASE. LINES FOR GASOLINE
AND AT THE GROCERY STORE MAY BE VERY LONG TODAY SO PLAN AHEAD TO
OBTAIN HURRICANE SUPPLIES DURING OFF TIMES.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN PALM BEACH COUNTY HAS ORDERED A
MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOMES AND BARRIER ISLANDS AND THE
LAKE SIDE OF THE HOOVER DIKE BEGINNING AT 2 PM. PALM BEACH RED CROSS
SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 2 PM. GLADES COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
ANTICIPATES A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF PEOPLE LIVING IN MOBILE HOMES
IN NORTHEAST GLADES COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. BROWARD COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT ANTICIPATES A MANDATORY EVACUATION TODAY FOR PERSONS
LIVING ON BARRIER ISLANDS AND ALL MOBILE HOMES. HENDRY COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ANTICIPATES CLOSING SCHOOLS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND WILL LOCK DOWN THE FORT DENAUD BRIDGE ONCE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS REACH THE AREA. HENDRY COUNTY SHELTERS WILL BE OPENING
TODAY AT 3 PM. ADDITIONALLY...ALL SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED FOR PALM
BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
COLLIER COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A HALF DAY TODAY AND
CLOSED ON FRIDAY. CALL YOUR LOCAL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HOTLINE
NUMBERS AVAILABLE ON COMMERCIAL TELEVISION AND RADIO FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE CENTER OF FRANCES IS NOW FORECAST TO CROSS THE COAST CLOSE TO
JUPITER INLET. THIS MEANS THAT THE GREATEST STORM SURGE THREAT WOULD
BE NORTH OF PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE WIND WOULD BE BLOWING FROM THE
LAND OUT TO SEA ACROSS MOST OF PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE
FOR THE WORST PART OF THE STORM. EVEN SO...ANY SOUTHWARD
DEVIATION IN THE TRACK COULD BRING STORM TIDES FROM 7 TO 9.5 FEET
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL TO EXTREME NORTH PALM BEACH COUNTY INCLUDING
JUPITER INLET...THE LOWER PART OF THE LOXAHATCHEE RIVER...PARTS OF
TEQUESTA...AND JUPITER INLET COLONY. STORM TIDES ARE A COMBINATION OF
STORM SURGE FROM THE HURRICANE AND THE NORMAL DAILY TIDAL LEVEL.
SHOULD THE TRACK OF FRANCES BE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH...STORM TIDES OF
7 TO 9.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WOULD BE POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...
NORTHEAST WINDS WOULD BLOW THE WATER IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE FIRST
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND LATER TOWARD THE SOUTH TOWARD THE HOOVER
DIKE IN GLADES...HENDRY...AND WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES. THE LAKE
LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY WAS 13.6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WHICH IS BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WATER WOULD BE PUSHED UP AS MUCH AS
8 TO 10 FEET HIGHER ON THE LAKE SIDE OF THE DIKE IN GLADES...
HENDRY...AND WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES FROM THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING
CREEK ALL THE WAY AROUND TO PAHOKEE INCLUDING MOORE HAVEN...
CLEWISTON...LAKE HARBOR...SOUTH BAY AND BELLE GLADE. THE MAXIMUM
STORM TIDE INSIDE HOOVER DIKE WOULD THEREFORE BE ABOUT 24 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL ON THE WEST AND SOUTH SIDES OF THE LAKE. THE HOOVER
DIKE PROTECTS INHABITED AREAS TO AT LEAST 30 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL. RITTA...KREAMER AND TORRY ISLANDS WOULD BE FLOODED AT THESE
LEVELS INCLUDING SOME CAMPGROUNDS AND ROADS. THE EXACT IMPACT
ON THE LAKE STILL DEPENDS ON HOW CLOSE AND FROM WHAT DIRECTION
FRANCES APPROACHES THE LAKE.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
ON FRIDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARRIVING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WOULD AFFECT
THE PALM BEACH AND NORTHEAST BROWARD METRO AREAS BEGINNING
AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO SATURDAY. ACROSS SOUTH
BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON LASTING INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS POTENTIALLY A
VERY LONG TIME FOR SUCH STRONG WINDS...WHICH MEANS GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGE. BE SURE TO STORE ALL LAWN FURNITURE AND SECURE SWING
SETS AND LOOSE YARD ITEMS. REMOVE COCONUTS FROM PALM TREES BECAUSE
THEY CAN BECOME DEADLY MISSILES IN HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF FRANCES...AND
SHOULD THE TRACK BE SHIFTED...THE WIND IMPACT WOULD CHANGE GREATLY.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SEAS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SEA CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND HURRICANE
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY EVENING LASTING WELL INTO SATURDAY. MARINERS SHOULD SECURE
THEIR BOATS IN SAFE HARBOR ALLOWING EXTRA LINE FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF STORM SURGE LEVELS OR DRY DOCK AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF FRANCES...AND
SHOULD THE TRACK BE SHIFTED...THE MARINE IMPACT WOULD CHANGE GREATLY.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
FORECAST STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY IN PALM BEACH
COUNTY ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 8 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE FRANCES CROSSES THE
COASTLINE. IN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES...MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS OF
6 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF FRANCES. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT COASTAL
COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE IS A THREAT OF TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF FRANCES.
THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THROUGHOUT SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED HURRICANE FRANCES LOCAL STATEMENT WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 12 NOON TODAY.

$$

PFOST

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