[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT42 KNHC 010239
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

GASTON IS MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION AS IT MOVES OVER 60 DEGREE
WATER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE EVEN INCREASED A BIT
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS...ALTHOUGH BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE
CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
NEARBY BUOY WIND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE WINDS MAY HAVE FALLEN
SOME...BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE APPARENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
GASTON IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETAIN TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR LONG
OVER SUCH COLD WATER...ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS...AND EVEN THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE...INDICATE THAT SOME MODEST EXTRATROPICAL STRENGTHENING
MAY OCCUR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 065/27. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SOME ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION AS GASTON...OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL
REMNANT...CONTINUES TO BE CARRIED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/0300Z 41.8N  66.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 43.7N  60.4W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 46.5N  51.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 49.0N  41.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 51.5N  31.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     04/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW


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