[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WWCA31 TJSJ 310608 CCA
HLSSJU
PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-311000-

BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE FRANCES LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
215 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2004

...HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...PASSING NORTH OF
   THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...WATCHES/ADVISORIES...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ST THOMAS...ST JOHN...
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ST CROIX. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS OR LESS.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTH THROUGH EAST COASTS OF ST CROIX TONIGHT...AND FOR THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE
ADJACENT SMALLER ISLANDS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST...NORTH... EAST AND
SOUTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...FROM RINCON NORTH TO AGUADILLA
EAST TO FAJARDO SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST TO GUAYAMA...AND FOR THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

...AREA AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS OF ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
CULEBRA SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...WITH FREQUENT SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BEGINNING TUESDAY
MORNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.

RESIDENTS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE ONSET OF
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TUESDAY FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS
GRADUALLY SPREADING WEST TO THE NORTHWEST COAST BY SUNSET...AND
POSSIBLE CONTINUING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI. FUTURE
FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE CONSIDERABLY AS THIS WEATHER
SCENARIO EVOLVES.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 AM AST..06Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.1 WEST...OR ABOUT 140 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF ST MAARTEN IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...220 MILES NORTHEAST
OF ST THOMAS...OR ABOUT 235 MILES NORTHEAST OF CULEBRA... OR ABOUT
280 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN.

FRANCES CONTINUES MOVING WEST AT NEAR 14 MPH...AND A WEST TO WEST
NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...AND PASS
NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AROUND NOON TIME...THEN CONTINUE NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
175 MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

...WIND IMPACTS...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND CULEBRA OVERNIGHT...WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS THEN SPREADING ACROSS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND
CULEBRA AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING...AND PERSISTING THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE DAY. PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
CULEBRA BETWEEN 9 AM AND 4 PM...WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ISLANDS. ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR FRANCES COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS
DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THESE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIME.

FOR PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES...THE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
JUST BRUSH THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 30
TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST OR INCREASE IN THE SIZE OF FRANCES COULD BRING
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND VIEQUES.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FRANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
ANEGADA PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE
LOCAL OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
BRINGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS. GUSTS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...WHERE SEAS WILL GROW VERY CONFUSED
AND HIGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED
FROM FRANCES HAD BEGUN TO AFFECT THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...THE LOCAL
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS...AND THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 8 FEET AND GREATER
LATE TONIGHT THEN REACH 12 FEET ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND SPREAD INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE MONA PASSAGE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SURF AND TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
COASTS OF ST CROIX AND THE EAST AND SOUTH COASTS OF THE REMAINING
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. AS FRANCES PASSES TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL NORTHEAST THEN NORTHERLY SWELLS
WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTLINES...CREATING VERY HIGH AND
DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 20 FEET...WHICH WILL GENERATE STRONG RIP
CURRENTS. ATLANTIC TIDES WILL RUN AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL...AND
IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH SURF WILL CAUSE BEACH EROSION ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINES.

SMALL CRAFT IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES SHOULD
PLAN TO RETURN TO SAFE HARBOR BY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN IN PORT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE SMALL CRAFT IN NORTH AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

...RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEATHER RADARS FROM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH RAIN
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF FRANCES...OUTSIDE OF THE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. MINOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE THUS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...ONCE THE CENTER OF
FRANCES PASSES EACH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...A STRONG
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL THEN BRING BANDS OF
SHOWERS...SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHEAST
QUARTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
CULEBRA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS...AND COULD
BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND NUMEROUS TUESDAY NIGHT. FLOODING OF DRY
GUTS AND SMALL STREAMS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE TO BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH ROCK AND LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE.

SIMILAR WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF FRANCES WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THEN SPREAD TO THE NORTHWEST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS PUERTO RICO MAY NOT
COMMENCE UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND LANDSLIDES WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MOUNTAINOUS SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. RAPID RIVER AND STREAM RISES COULD OCCUR
WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED ON TUESDAY.

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY AROUND 6 AM BY
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE FRANCES CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES.

...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT (ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS).

        HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU






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