[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT43 KNHC 310241
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

HERMINE IS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AND LOOKS LIKE A LOW LEVEL
CLOUD SWIRL...A REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...BUOY 44004 REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KTS AND SEAS OF 15 FEET AS THE CENTER PASSED
TO THE WEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A 35 KNOT WIND MAXIMUM IS LOCATED
BETWEEN THE BUOY AND THE CYCLONE CENTER.  SATELLITE T-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB ALSO SUPPORT A 35 KNOT WIND SPEED.  SO THE SYSTEM IS
KEPT AS A 35 KNOT TROPICAL STORM UNTIL LANDFALL IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/24.  THIS MOTION IS KEPT UNTIL
AFTER LANDFALL ON THE MASSACHUSETTS MAINLAND AND THEN A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST AS THE STORM MOVES AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND RUNS INTO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE GFDL SOLUTION.
THE 850 MB VORTICITY CENTER OF HERMINE IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      31/0300Z 41.1N  71.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     31/1200Z 44.1N  68.6W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     01/0000Z 47.9N  61.8W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL



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