[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WWCA31 TJSJ 300629
HLSSJU
PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-301000-

BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE FRANCES LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
229 AM AST MON AUG 30 2004

...POWERFUL HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK...

...WATCHES...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...
AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...PUERTO RICO. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
36 HOURS OR LESS.

...AREA AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS OF ST THOMAS...ST JOHN...AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS AND
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES SHOULD BEGIN TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR POSSIBLE
HURRICANE CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI. FUTURE FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS MAY
CHANGE CONSIDERABLY AS THIS WEATHER SCENARIO EVOLVES.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 AM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST...OR ABOUT...545 MILES
EAST OF ST THOMAS OR ABOUT 560 MILES EAST OF CULEBRA.

THE HURRICANE WAS MOVING WEST AT NEAR 10 MPH...WITH A WEST TO WEST
NORTHWEST MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. A RECENT U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT
REPORTED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES FRANCES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND CULEBRA TONIGHT...REACHING TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...AND SPREAD
ACROSS ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND CULEBRA BY AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING. THESE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND CULEBRA THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
FOR FRANCES COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE ISLANDS
DURING THIS TIME.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED FROM FRANCES WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...THE LOCAL EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS...AND THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 6 FEET AND GREATER TONIGHT. THEN THROUGH TUESDAY...THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FRANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND SEAS TO
12 FEET ACROSS THESE MARINE AREAS. SURF AND TIDES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF ST CROIX AND THE EAST
AND SOUTH COASTS OF THE BRITISH AND REMAINING U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
LATER TODAY...WHERE HEAVY SURF ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED. AS
FRANCES PASSES TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL
NORTHEAST THEN NORTH SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
COASTLINES...CREATING VERY HIGH AND DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 20 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES SHOULD
PLAN TO RETURN TO SAFE HARBOR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PORT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...
SHOWERS...SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF HURRICANE FRANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND OVER CULEBRA AND VIEQUES PUERTO
RICO LATER THIS EVENING...AND THEN BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND NUMEROUS
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND LANDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF FRANCES MOVES
JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MOUNTAINOUS SECTIONS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. RAPID RIVER AND STREAM RISES COULD OCCUR WITH SOME
RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL.

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6:00 AM
BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN...
PUERTO RICO.

BCS

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE FRANCES CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES.

...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT (ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS).

        HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU

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