[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 300608 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON 30 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

...UPDATE ON FRANCES...


BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FRANCES IS CENTERED NEAR 19.0N 56.8W OR ABOUT 435
MILES E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AT 30/0600 UTC...
MOVING W 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 135 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB. SEE THE
LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC OR MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SOME FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 160 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 75 NM IN THE SW
SEMICIRCLE.

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS CENTERED NEAR 33.2N 71.3W AT 30/0300
UTC...MOVING NNW 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005
MB. SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR FORECAST/ADVISORY
ISSUED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC OR
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE 200 NM E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 19W SOUTH
OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CYCLONIC
TURNING IN MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM 11N-16N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN
16W-23W.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 40W/41W
SOUTH OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS WEAK
AND POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED MAINLY IN THE ITCZ  FROM 6N-7N BETWEEN
38N-41N.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 89W/90W
SOUTH OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
REMAINS MAINLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 20N.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 16N10W 9N37W 11N60W.  SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA N OF 3N FROM
10W-12W.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITH IN 150 NM OF AXIS FROM 20W-35W AND WITH IN
200NM OF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM SIERRA LEONE TO SENEGAL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF
EXTENDING FROM NEAR CULIACAN ON THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO TO SE
LOUISIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE LOUISIANA COAST AS THE RIDGE IS BEING COMPRESSED BY A
LONG WAVE THROUGH MOVING SE FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS LOCATED ABOUT 150 NM N OF THE EASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 22N86W.  MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE
LOCATED E OF 88W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND WEST CUBA INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

THE W ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA..
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED 90NM NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS CENTER
NEAR 25N74W...WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N73W.  REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN...IS
FAIRLY QUIT WITH WETLY FLOW PROVIDING MODERATE SUBSTANCE AND DRY
AIR WITH IN 150 NM 14N FROM 72W-84W.  EAST CARIBBEAN...A WEAK
RIDGE AXIS EXTEND FROM INLAND OVER S AMERICA NEAR THE ABC
ISLANDS NORTHEAST TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC...
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS N OF 25N FROM 20W-50W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 19N50W AND COVERS THE AREA W OF 35W TO 65W INCLUDING
HURRICANE FRANCES.  E OF HURRICANE FRANCES INCLUDING THE E
CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  EAST TROPICAL
ATLANTIC HAS MID/UPPER LEVEL STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TO 47W.

$$
JP/PAW



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