[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion
Nashville EMWIN
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sat Aug 28 03:48:41 CDT 2004
WTNT42 KNHC 280847
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004
SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM CHARLESTON SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER IN A CYCLONIC CURVED BAND. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE
2.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 30
KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...THEREFORE...THE
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
BECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS ARE VERY WEAK...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY FORCE
THE CYCLONE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND STEER THE CYCLONE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
EXPECTED SLOW MOTION OF THE CYCLONE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0900Z 31.2N 78.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 31.3N 78.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 31.5N 79.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 32.2N 79.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 33.0N 80.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/0600Z 34.6N 77.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/0600Z 39.0N 70.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/0600Z 42.5N 60.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
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