[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 280845
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  51.3 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM AST TUE AUG 31 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

19.0N  54.3W      54  X  X  X 54   TNCM 181N 631W     X  X  1 13 14
20.0N  56.5W       2 39  X  X 41   TISX 177N 648W     X  X  X  9  9
20.5N  58.5W       X 15 15  1 31   TIST 183N 650W     X  X  X 10 10
TFFF 146N 610W     X  X  X  2  2   TJPS 180N 666W     X  X  X  4  4
TDPR 153N 614W     X  X  1  4  5   TJSJ 184N 661W     X  X  X  7  7
80400 157N 636W    X  X  X  4  4   ST CROIX VI        X  X  X  9  9
TFFR 163N 615W     X  X  2  7  9   ST THOMAS VI       X  X  X 10 10
TAPA 171N 618W     X  X  3  9 12   SAN JUAN PR        X  X  X  7  7
TKPK 173N 627W     X  X  1 11 12   PONCE PR           X  X  X  4  4

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM SUN TO  2PM SUN
C FROM  2PM SUN TO  2AM MON
D FROM  2AM MON TO  2AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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