[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion
Nashville EMWIN
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Fri Aug 27 15:48:06 CDT 2004
WTNT42 KNHC 272047
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATONS...ALONG WITH WSR-88D DATA FROM
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA...INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS DEVELOPED INTO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN.
THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE STEERING CURRENTS
ARE QUITE WEAK. HOWEVER...A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD-7
IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S. IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AND ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD. BY
96 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE CAPTURED BY THE TROUGH AND
CARRIED OUT TO SEA AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS
MODELS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT THAT WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION.
THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IS SHOWING
GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THUS...
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY 24
HR AND REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KT AT LANDFALL. THERE IS A
CHANCE THE SYSTEM COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF IT STAYS
OFFSHORE LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/2100Z 31.6N 78.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 31.5N 78.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 32.0N 79.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 32.8N 80.0W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 29/1800Z 33.7N 79.4W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 30/1800Z 35.1N 77.7W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 31/1800Z 39.0N 74.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 01/1800Z 42.0N 64.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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