[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 192352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU 19 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE CENTER NEAR 30.0N 37.4W AT 19/2100 UTC
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 35 KT GUSTS
45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  DANIELLE IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED WITH ANY
CONVECTION WELL TO THE NE OF THE CENTER.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 33W-37W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 23W S OF
20N...MOVING W 10-15 KT.  BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED
ON IR SATELLITE ALONG 17N WITH THE WAVE ENHANCING CONVECTION IN
THE ITCZ TO THE S.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 49W S OF 16N
MOVING W 20-25 KT.  THIS IS A RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE THAT
IS BEST TRACKABLE BY CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ AND A FAINT ROTATION
NOTED IN THE MID-LEVELS.  AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN IS LIKELY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 62W S OF 15N
MOVING W 15 KT.  NOT MUCH TO THIS WAVE EXCEPT FOR A SMALL
INCREASE IN SHOWERS S OF 13N.

THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
EARL HAVE LEFT THE DISCUSSION AREA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W TO 9N30W 10N40W 9N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 25W-28W AND
29W-32W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
50W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AFTER A SPURT OF ACTIVITY... THE TROPICS HAVE QUIETED DOWN
EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR LIFELESS DANIELLE IN THE FAR NE ATLC.
GENERAL WLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WITH A
WEAK TROUGH ALONG 84W N OF 24N.  THIS FEATURE SEEMED TO HAVE
ASSISTED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING A BIT CLOSER TO THE AREA TOMORROW ANOTHER ROUND OF
TSTMS ESPECIALLY INLAND WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS.
BROAD RIDGING COVERS THE GULF AT THE SURFACE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH RUNS FROM PUERTO RICO WSW TO 15N72W THEN
12N81W CUTS THE AREA INTO TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WITHIN 60/90 NM OF AXIS IS LIMITED CONVECTION WHILE MORE TYPICAL
DIURNAL TSTMS ARE FORMING OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NE S
AMERICA AREAS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER FLOW IS LIKELY WITH
RIDGING IN THE NW/SE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A WEAKENED VERSION OF
THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE S OF 11N W OF 79W ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER HIGH NEAR 22N76W CONTROLS THE AREA W OF 70W WHILE A SMALL
LOW NEAR 22N65W INFLUENCES THE REST OF THE AREA W OF 60W.  WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N67W25N73W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS.  A FEW SHOWERS ARE FORMING WITHIN 90
NM OF THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW.  OTHERWISE DRY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES BETWEEN 60W-50W SHIFTING MORE TO THE WSW
AND SW AS IT ROUNDS AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 23N37W.  THIS HIGH COVERS
THE E ATLC EXCEPT FOR A SMALL TROUGH ALONG NW AFRICA NEAR THE
CANARY ISLANDS.  FLAT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH N OF 26N ALONG 40W IS
CAUSING STRONG SHEAR ON DANIELLE.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
DEEP ELY FLOW IS N OF THE ITCZ EXCEPT FOR A WEAK INVERTED
MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM THE 18N28W TO 9N37W.  OTHERWISE THE DEEP
TROPICS ARE DRY IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS W OF THE UPPER TROUGH...
LIMITING ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.  LINKED TO THIS IS THE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH SEA LEVEL PRESSURES CURRENTLY IN THE TROPICAL
ATLC THOUGH WIND SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW.

$$
BLAKE


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