[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT45 KNHC 152039
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

EARL CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN WITH FAIRLY
SYMMETRIC UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...EVEN THOUGH THE HURRICANE HUNTERS
HAD DIFFICULTY CLOSING OFF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EARLIER TODAY.
THE INNER CORE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY STRONG AT THIS TIME.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM ALL THREE
AGENCIES...BUT WE WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT AIRCRAFT FIX IN A FEW
HOURS BEFORE CHANGING THE INTENSITY.  THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS QUITE
FAVORABLE AHEAD OF THE STORM SO STRENGTHENING IS STILL EXPECTED
...ESPECIALLY IF EARL SLOWS ITS FORWARD SPEED SOMEWHAT.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITIES ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE GIVEN BY
SHIPS...WITH AN INTERRUPTION DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND.

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN MORE GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT RIDGING TO PREVENT MUCH OF A TURN TO THE NORTH LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE U.K. MET DOES SHOW A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY
DAYS 4-5.  OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL AND NOGAPS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH.  THE GFS HAS DIFFICULTY TRACKING EARL
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS BUT SUGGESTS A MAINLY WESTWARD MOTION.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE LEFT ON
THIS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/2100Z 12.3N  63.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 13.2N  67.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 14.2N  71.2W    50 KT
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 15.2N  75.4W    55 KT
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 16.0N  79.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     18/1800Z 17.5N  84.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     19/1800Z 20.0N  89.0W    65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     20/1800Z 22.0N  92.0W    80 KT...OVER WATER

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