[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT75 KNHC 152035
SPFAT5
TROPICAL STORM EARL PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN AUG 15 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  63.8 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM AST WED AUG 18 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

14.2N  71.2W      50  3  X  X 53   MUCM 214N 779W     X  X  2  3  5
15.2N  75.4W       X 34  2  X 36   MUCF 221N 805W     X  X  X  6  6
16.0N  79.0W       X  2 24  1 27   MUSN 216N 826W     X  X  X 11 11
SKPG 125N 717W    14  4  X  X 18   MUHA 230N 824W     X  X  X  5  5
TNCC 122N 690W    18  X  X  X 18   MUAN 219N 850W     X  X  X 10 10
SVMG 110N 640W     7  X  X  X  7   MMCZ 205N 869W     X  X  X 12 12
TGPY 120N 618W    99  X  X  X 99   MZBZ 175N 883W     X  X  X  8  8
MDCB 176N 714W     3  9  X  X 12   MGPB 157N 886W     X  X  X  3  3
MTPP 186N 724W     X  5  1  X  6   MHNJ 165N 859W     X  X  X 14 14
MTCA 183N 738W     X 12  3  1 16   MNPC 141N 834W     X  X  1 10 11
MKJP 179N 768W     X  7 18  X 25   MNBL 120N 839W     X  X  X  2  2
MKJS 185N 779W     X  1 19  2 22   SKSP 126N 817W     X  X  2  4  6
MWCG 193N 814W     X  X  4 16 20   MMMD 210N 897W     X  X  X  4  4
MUGM 200N 751W     X  1  4  1  6

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM MON TO  2AM TUE
C FROM  2AM TUE TO  2PM TUE
D FROM  2PM TUE TO  2PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH


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