[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT44 KNHC 150903
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.5...4.0...AND 4.0 FROM TAFB...
SAB...AFWA...RESPECTIVELY. AODT VALUES ARE T4.5...OR 77 KT. BASED
ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE NICE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE
NOTED IN A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 75 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST REASONING. ALL OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO DIG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
DANIELLE. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW
DANIELLE TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN.  MOST OF
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING RECURVATURE...BUT THOSE MODELS ARE
ALREADY WELL TO THE RIGHT OF DANIELLE'S RECENT MOTION AND CURRENT
POSITION. THE NEW GFS RUN TAKES DANIELLE GRADUALLY NORTHWESTWARD
AND THIS FORECAST SCENARIO WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED.

DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 80F AND WARMER WATER AND IN A
WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO.
THEREFORE...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY..AND DANIELLE COULD
EVEN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS IF IT CONTINUES ITS
CURRENT WESTWARD MOTION A LITTLE LONGER THAN FORECAST.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/0900Z 14.2N  31.6W    75 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 14.7N  33.7W    80 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 15.9N  35.9W    85 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 17.4N  37.7W    90 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 19.6N  39.6W    90 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 23.0N  42.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 26.5N  44.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     20/0600Z 29.0N  45.0W    65 KT


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