[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT45 KNHC 150856
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

WHILE THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS ELONGATED
SLIGHTLY EAST-WEST...THE AMOUNT AND QUALITY OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING. THE DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB IS A CONSENSUS
T3.0...OR 45 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY INCREASED TO 40 KT
BASED ON THE LACK OF CONSISTENT BANDING FEATURES. AIR FORCE RECON
WILL BE INVESTIGATING EARL LATER THIS MORNING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/22. MOST OF
THE CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES SUGGEST
THAT EARL IS MOVING MORE WESTWARD AND IS...THEREFORE...SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS POSITIONS AND FORECAST TRACK. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...EARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BASICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
INITIAL TRACK WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THROUGH 72 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY LOCATION. AFTER
72 HOURS...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED.
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN TAKING EARL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN OR NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OR EVEN NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ALL OF
THE MODELS AGREE ON ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 5...CAUSING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO RETREAT EASTWARD TO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF. THIS MAY
RESULT IN EARL SLOWING DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND TURNING MORE
NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...
NOGAPS...AND UKMET SOLUTIONS...ONLY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE UKMET.

WITH LITTLE OR NO SHEAR EXPECTED TO AFFECT EARL...SOME SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS SINCE THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING AT A FAIRLY FAST FORWARD SPEED. AFTER
EARL SLOWS DOWN IN THE LATER TIME PERIODS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH
WARMER WATER IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/0900Z 11.7N  59.1W    40 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 12.7N  62.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 13.9N  66.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 15.0N  70.6W    55 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 16.1N  74.4W    60 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 18.3N  80.3W    70 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 20.5N  84.5W    80 KT
120HR VT     20/0600Z 24.0N  87.0W    90 KT


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