[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KTAE 120629
HLSTLH
FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ750-755-770-775-121030-

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...BONNIE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND BIG BEND COAST FROM DESTIN EAST TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE
RIVER...

...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
INLAND COUNTIES OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
WALTON...HOLMES...WASHINGTON...BAY...JACKSON...CALHOUN...GULF...
GADSDEN...LIBERTY...FRANKLIN...LEON...WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...
MADISON...TAYLOR...DIXIE AND LAFAYETTE.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES IN IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST FROM DESTIN...EAST TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER.
HOWEVER...SINCE BONNIE HAS WEAKENED AND MAY NOT REGAIN ITS LOST
STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE DOWNGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WELL INLAND OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND POSSIBLY
INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST OR ABOUT 240 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER OF BONNIE IS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH
THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THE
BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL
AROUND 11 AM CDT BETWEEN PANAMA CITY BEACH AND MEXICO BEACH. THE
STORM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO AND EXTREME
SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA BY MID THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...BUT SOME RE-STRENGTHING IS STILL POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND
MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION...IT WILL STILL HAVE TIME TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXACERBATE
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL...AS SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS EXIST IN MANY
AREAS DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINS. AS BONNIE MOVES FROM THE PANHANDLE
THURSDAY MORNING TO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON...
WIDESPREAD 4 TO 6 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED. THIS COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
DUE TO THE SIZE OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH BEYOND 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE
CENTER. THEREFORE...ANY SLIGHT CHANGE IN BONNIE'S TRACK COULD SHIFT
THE AREA AFFECTED BY THE STRONGEST WINDS. AT THIS TIME TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL IMPACT AREAS
ALONG THE COAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES OF THE PANHANDLE AND
FLORIDA BIG BEND...WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE GULF COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN
THE BAYS...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND PANAMA CITY IN EAST BAY...ST.
JOSEPH BAY BETWEEN PORT ST. JOE AND THE ST. JOSEPH PENINSULA...AND IN
APALACHICOLA BAY BETWEEN APALACHICOLA AND ST. GEORGE ISLAND. ALSO
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL.

THE LOCAL TIDES FOR THURSDAY ARE AS FOLLOWS.

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE AT 1221 PM...LOW TIDES AT 605 AM AND 751 PM.

APALACHICOLA...
HIGH TIDES AT 507 AM AND 1203 PM...LOW TIDES AT 807 PM AND 949 PM.

SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY...
HIGH TIDE AT 751 AM...LOW TIDE AT 710 PM.

SEAS OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AND REACH 12 TO 15 FEET ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY ROUGH
SURF ALONG THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

...RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ALONG THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE BEACHES.

WIND...WAVE...AND TIDAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
TODAY. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE
WATER.

ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL AND LOCAL OFFICIALS. BE
ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND UNGUARDED BEACHES. A
RIP CURRENT IS A STRONG NARROW CURRENT OF WATER FLOWING FROM THE
BEACH THROUGH THE SURF ZONE. IT CAN RAPIDLY CARRY A SWIMMER INTO
DEEPER WATER. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...WADE SIDEWAYS
PARALLEL TO THE BEACH UNTIL YOU ARE OUT OF ITS PULL.

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 6 AM EDT (5 AM CDT).

$$

GOULD

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