[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 232032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232032
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-232300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2098
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Areas affected...southeastern Missouri and northeastern Arkansas
into the Mid Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 232032Z - 232300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Gradually increasing convection will pose some risk for
gusty winds and hail, possibly reaching severe levels locally.  A
tornado also cannot be ruled out, though overall limited/marginal
nature of the risk expected at this time may preclude the need for
WW consideration.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows some thinning of
the high clouds across southeastern Missouri and into Arkansas, near
and ahead of the surface cold front.  Resulting, filtered heating
has allowed 1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE to evolve near and
ahead of the boundary.  This is supporting a gradual increase in
convective coverage across the Mid Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys -- and westward into the Ozarks just to the cool side of the
front.  This increase includes a small/weakly rotating storm moving
eastward across New Madrid County Missouri at this time.

Low-level flow remains generally veered across the warm sector,
limiting shear in the lowest 1km AGL.  Still, 30 to 40 kt
west-southwesterlies at mid levels will continue to provide shear
sufficient to support organized updrafts.  Ascent crossing
Missouri/Arkansas at this time -- associated with a mid-level  vort
max -- suggests some further increase in convective
coverage/intensity over the next couple of hours.  While we will
continue to monitor evolution, present indications remain that WW
issuance should remain unnecessary.

..Goss/Guyer.. 09/23/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36509225 37129079 37688976 37898795 37858688 36998690
            35858800 34489103 34549181 35129232 36509225
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