[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 241653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241653
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-241900-

Mesoscale Discussion 2100
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Areas affected...portions of western and Middle Tennessee...part of
western and central Kentucky...southeastern Indiana...and
southwestern Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 241653Z - 241900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Convective coverage/intensity should continue to ramp up
through early afternoon, with severe threat to gradually increase.
WW issuance may be required.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows broken cloud cover
across the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, in the wake of earlier
convection.  This has allowed modest destabilization to commence
ahead of the advancing cold front, with an axis of 1500 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE now extending from southern Indiana
south-southwestward across parts of western and Middle Tennessee.
In response to the destabilizing environment, and ascent in the
vicinity of the front, a gradual convective increase is noted on
radar and visible satellite loops, which should continue over the
next couple of hours as modest/continued heating/destabilization
occur.

On the southeastern fringe of the advancing trough (across the Ohio
and Tennessee Valley areas), moderately strong southwesterly flow
aloft is indicated, which will aid in storm intensification
resulting in eventually multicell and potentially isolated supercell
storms.  As this occurs, risk for locally damaging wind gusts, and
some hail, will increase with stronger storms/storm clusters.  Given
the evolving severe-weather potential, a severe thunderstorm watch
may be needed in the next hour or so.

..Goss/Guyer.. 09/24/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   39698439 39118392 38178454 36088607 35228713 35078895
            35678894 36438855 37718705 38608639 39528553 39698439
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