[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 270552
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270552
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-270745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1008
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Areas affected...southeastern Arkansas...northern
Louisiana...western and Middle Tennessee...northern
Mississippi...and northern Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 326...328...329...

Valid 270552Z - 270745Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 326, 328, 329 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong/locally severe storms continue within a band from
northern and western Tennessee west-southwestward to the Arklatex.
Risk for locally damaging winds and hail, and a tornado or two,
continues.  Southeastward expansion of the convection into northern
parts of Mississippi and Alabama will likely require new WW
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a continues line of storms
extending west-southwest to east-northeast across northern Middle
and western Tennessee, which is sagging slowly southward.
Meanwhile, a broken -- but more intense -- band of storms extends
from western Tennessee southwestward to the Arklatex region.  This
convection is ongoing within a much more unstable environment
(mixed-layer CAPE 3000 to 5000 J/kg across this area), and is a bit
less shear-parallel than the more west-to-east Tennessee band of
storms.

As this stronger convection shifts gradually eastward over the next
1 to 2 hours, it will begin to impinge on eastern portions of WW 328
and, later, 329.  Other, isolated storms are also developing across
northwestern Alabama, south of the Middle Tennessee line of storms.
Overall, with ample instability extending into northern Mississippi
and -- to a lesser degree -- northern Alabama, new WW issuance will
likely be needed soon over portions of northern Mississippi and
northern Alabama.  Southeastward extent of the risk should remain
limited (into Georgia, and central portions of Alabama), given much
weaker instability, and higher convective inhibition.

..Goss.. 05/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   35638594 35418555 34698567 33858600 33218976 32479262
            32779341 33719267 35488938 35708807 35828712 35638594
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