[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 270239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270239
TNZ000-KYZ000-ARZ000-270415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1004
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...Western/Middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 270239Z - 270415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing convective line will continue to pose a risk for
damaging gusts and tornadoes as it moves into TN, and a Tornado
Watch will be issued soon.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing convective line continues to push southeastward
across western KY and the MO Bootheel. Portion of this line moving
across far southwest KY is moving at around 45 kt, which will bring
it to the south-central KY/middle TN around 0300Z. Strong buoyancy
and shear already in place suggest the line will maintain its
intensity as it continues southeastward into the region. Damaging
gusts will be the primary risk, but the strong low-level veering
with height sampled by the 00Z BNA sounding and recent OHX VAD
suggests some QLCS tornado potential as well, particularly with the
central portions of the line which could be oriented more orthogonal
to the deep-layer flow. Given the anticipated threat, a Tornado
Watch is being issued.

..Mosier/Smith.. 05/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35808918 36658724 36448514 35108649 35008955 35239021
            35808918
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