[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 262219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262218
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-262345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0987
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...Western/Middle TN...Far North-Central MS...Far
Southwest KY

Concerning...Tornado Watch 320...

Valid 262218Z - 262345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 320 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development across western Tennessee is
possible, with storms capable of very large hail up to 3" in
diameter and tornadoes. Anything that develops may move into middle
Tennessee, so trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance
across this region.

DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery has shown increasing
vertical depth within the cumulus field over western TN. The airmass
in this region is moderately to strong buoyant, with recent
mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE ranging from 3500 J/kg near the MS
River to 1500 J/kg across middle TN. This area is currently
displaced south and east of the stronger ascent, but there could
still be enough low-level convergence to support convective
initiation, particularly if convective attempts occur in close
proximity to one another.

Vertical shear across the region is also very strong and the
resulting environment is capable of supporting supercells capable of
all severe hazards, including very large hail up to 3" in diameter
and tornadoes. A portion of this region is in Tornado Watch 320, but
trends will need to be monitored closely to ensure that areas across
middle TN are covered if trends merit.

..Mosier/Smith.. 05/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35718967 36558920 36788837 36578745 35728758 35038801
            34598908 34948974 35718967
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