[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 262042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262042
NCZ000-TNZ000-262145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0984
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...portions of Middle into eastern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 262042Z - 262145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across portions of middle into
eastern Tennessee. Large hail is becoming the main concern as storms
become more supercellular through the afternoon. A couple of
tornadoes also cannot be ruled out. Either a new WW issuance or
local expansions of existing watches are needed.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has gradually transitioned to a
more supercellular mode over the past couple of hours, with a
dominant supercell recently producing severe hail. Other supercells
are beginning to form in the warm sector as well, including in spots
where the airmass remains pristine. Given ample buoyancy/shear and
the more cellular mode, severe hail will become the main threat over
Middle into eastern TN over the next few hours, though a couple of
tornadoes and damaging gusts are still possible. As such, either a
new WW issuance or expansion of existing watches is needed to
address the present severe weather scenario.

..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...OHX...

LAT...LON   35998683 36378522 36308381 35938345 35408371 35158422
            35118481 35388573 35588637 35998683
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