[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 261858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261857
TNZ000-KYZ000-262030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0978
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...portions of southern Kentucky into northern and
Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 315...

Valid 261857Z - 262030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 315 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 315.
Damaging gusts will be the main threat, and a tornado cannot be
ruled out. Severe weather is most likely wherever thunderstorms can
ingest the warmer airmass. Local spatial and temporal extensions of
Tornado Watch 315 may be necessary.

DISCUSSION...While the earlier QLCS recently progressed out of
Tornado Watch 315 (into eastern KY), a second line of thunderstorms
continues to move east-southeast over southern KY into northern and
middle TN. This line of storms is trailing the previous QLCS, atop a
cooler and stable airmass. Much of this line may remain on the cool
side of the baroclinic zone, with limited severe potential. However,
the southern flank of the line may interact with the baroclinic
boundary and potentially ingest surface-based air parcels. Should
this occur, damaging gusts will be possible and a tornado cannot be
ruled out.

Tornado Watch 315 expires at 2000Z, so a temporal extension of the
watch may be needed. A spatial extension of the watch may also be
needed if the line of storms can build farther south.

..Squitieri.. 05/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36028742 36518642 36918556 36858471 36458395 35848382
            35568403 35508500 35598590 35678679 36028742
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