[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 261251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261250
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-261445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0971
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...Mid Mississippi Valley into central Kentucky/Middle
Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 314...

Valid 261250Z - 261445Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 314 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk -- including a couple of tornadoes along with
damaging wind gusts and hail -- continues across Tornado Watch 314.
Risk will eventually spread east of this watch, likely warranting
downstream WW issuance into central Kentucky and Middle Tennessee,
and potentially southern Indiana.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that convection has evolved
into a bowing MCS across southeastern Missouri, and now moving
across the Mississippi Valley, with embedded small-scale
circulations embedded therein.  As such, risk for a couple of
tornadoes continues, along with more widespread potential for
damaging winds/hail.

Downstream from the ongoing convection, ample instability appears to
extend eastward as far as central Kentucky and Middle Tennessee.
Given the well-organized nature of this MCS -- including the
MCV/mesolow apparent in southeastern Missouri -- expect that storms
will remain organized as they shift eastward, accompanied by
continued severe risk over the next few hours at least.  While the
watch currently runs through 26/15Z, risk likely continuing beyond
this time/downstream from the eastern edge of the watch will likely
require new WW issuance in the 14Z to 1430Z time frame.

..Goss.. 05/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35968991 36728934 37418966 37688948 38078722 38178558
            36268514 35518585 35718813 35968991
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