[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 231654
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231653
TNZ000-KYZ000-231900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0910
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Middle/Eastern Tennessee into
south-central Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 231653Z - 231900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging winds and isolated large hail will be possible
with scattered storms this afternoon. A watch is possible for
portions of Middle/Eastern Tennessee into central Kentucky if trends
warrant.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus have become more vertically developed along an
outflow boundary in Middle Tennessee. With the approach of an MCV,
now near Western Tennessee, and continued heating, storm coverage is
likely to increase over the next few hours. Storm coverage into
Kentucky may initially be limited, but daytime heating should
destabilize the outflow by the afternoon. Wind damage will likely be
the primary threat with scattered storms this afternoon. The 12Z
observed BNA sounding showed mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km and
effective shear should modestly increase today. A few supercell
structures could also produce large hail.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/23/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...

LAT...LON   35318539 35308654 35668730 36288762 36458758 36578748
            37258666 37538612 37538535 37368476 37208443 36588376
            35848397 35318529 35318539
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